Every four years, Americans come together to choose the direction of the country. This year's election is among the most consequential in American history, as it will determine whether the nation remains true to its ideals of building a more perfect union or experiences further erosion of democratic norms. Among the two main candidates—Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump—one has embraced increasingly authoritarian rhetoric, vowing retribution against perceived enemies, mass deportations, and continued attacks on the rights of women, Black citizens, and the LGBTQ+ community. The other candidate, Harris, seeks to build a coalition of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, presenting policy solutions that address the critical issues facing our country and promote a multiracial democracy.
The choice could not be clearer. Yet, as we approach election day, the race is tied nationally and in crucial swing states. Vice President Harris, who became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, is one of the most qualified candidates in U.S. history. If elected, she would make history as the first woman and woman of color to ascend to the presidency. Her qualifications surpass those of Trump in 2016; following multiple felony convictions, two impeachments, and inciting an insurrection, Trump is even less fit for office today than he was then.
However, these are not normal times, and Trump still has a viable path to victory. Regardless of the outcome, this election will be historic. Here are several key points to keep in mind as we await the results:
My Prediction
Take this prediction with caution, as no one truly knows the outcome until the votes are counted. In 2012, I accurately called every state except Florida, which I believed Romney would win. In 2016, I was significantly off base, misjudging Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, and Wisconsin. In 2020, I underestimated Biden’s strength in Georgia and Arizona. This year, I predict a Harris victory, with her securing 319 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 219.
I hesitated to award Harris victories in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, but even without those states, she would still win by retaining the "Blue Wall" states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. While I have concerns about polling not fully capturing the effects of misogyny and racism, I remain optimistic that, once the votes are counted, Harris will be the next President of the United States.
Regardless of your candidate, remember nothing changes if you don't vote. If you haven't already, make your voice heard this election and vote!
The choice could not be clearer. Yet, as we approach election day, the race is tied nationally and in crucial swing states. Vice President Harris, who became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, is one of the most qualified candidates in U.S. history. If elected, she would make history as the first woman and woman of color to ascend to the presidency. Her qualifications surpass those of Trump in 2016; following multiple felony convictions, two impeachments, and inciting an insurrection, Trump is even less fit for office today than he was then.
However, these are not normal times, and Trump still has a viable path to victory. Regardless of the outcome, this election will be historic. Here are several key points to keep in mind as we await the results:
- No One Knows What Will Happen: Despite the best efforts of polls, models, and reporters, predictions are unreliable. It’s best to ignore the noise and await official results.
- Delayed Results: Do not expect an immediate call of the race. Counting votes takes time, and results may not be known until late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning in many states.
- Understanding Swing States: Swing states are those that can shift between Democratic and Republican candidates in elections. For instance, Georgia voted for Trump in 2016 but flipped to Biden in 2020, exemplifying the fluid nature of these critical states.
- Key Swing States to Watch: This election night, pay close attention to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
- Senate Races: There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs, many currently held by Democrats in Republican-leaning states. Republicans are expected to narrowly regain control of the Senate. Important races to watch include those in Ohio, Nebraska, Montana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Texas.
- House of Representatives: All 435 House seats are on the ballot, with Republicans currently holding a slim majority.
- Early Voting Trends: About 78 million Americans have already voted early. A significant gender gap exists, with Harris leading among women and Trump among men.
- Scenarios for Trump: If Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he could achieve a landslide victory.
- Scenarios for Harris: A strong night for Harris would see her winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin while maintaining support in Georgia and Arizona, and possibly picking up North Carolina.
My Prediction
Take this prediction with caution, as no one truly knows the outcome until the votes are counted. In 2012, I accurately called every state except Florida, which I believed Romney would win. In 2016, I was significantly off base, misjudging Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, and Wisconsin. In 2020, I underestimated Biden’s strength in Georgia and Arizona. This year, I predict a Harris victory, with her securing 319 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 219.
I hesitated to award Harris victories in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, but even without those states, she would still win by retaining the "Blue Wall" states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. While I have concerns about polling not fully capturing the effects of misogyny and racism, I remain optimistic that, once the votes are counted, Harris will be the next President of the United States.
Regardless of your candidate, remember nothing changes if you don't vote. If you haven't already, make your voice heard this election and vote!
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